January 2017 Global Temperature Update
Global temperature declined during 2016 (Fig. 1) as the strong 2015-16 El Nino peaked in late 2015. As usual, global temperature peaked a few months after the Nino3.4 maximum.
Nino3.4 temperature is now near the boundary (-0.5C) between La Nina and Nino-neutral conditions, with most models predicting a moderate rise in tropical temperatures over the next several months.
Despite the relatively cool tropical Pacific region, global temperature has not declined all the way to the pre-El Nino level, at least in part because of the unusual Arctic warmth (Fig. 2).